Saturday, January 7, 2012

Bankruptcy in a No Credit Risk world

This is a bit out of date, but with Kodak about to do something very similar, it's topical again.


The AA bankruptcy deal is a great example of "No Credit Risk" in action. Their bondholders will generally have to accept lower rates of return, but given that any leveraged bondholder probably as access to near-zero interest loans, that's not really a big deal. Anyone holding tons of AA stock without a diverse portfolio is pretty dumb, and the recent move by central banks to flood markets with cash have probably offset most investors' equity losses. Customers won't get stranded, or even bothered, by the deal. With the exception of stock options, this won't even touch executive pay.

So, who gets hurt? AA's union workers, retirees and small cities. This is very bad, and makes very clear that managers are welcome to negotiate in bad faith with unions and municipalities because current bankruptcy law protects their personal assets and even their compensation, while their counter-parties have no recourse but to accept further reduced pay and services. The union's primary recourse, striking, is effectively against the law and they cannot go to court to petition for redress because the institution that's harming them is under the judicial branch's protection. In other words, there is no legal redress except to quit, and unless there is a substantial upturn in employment, that option exposes its takers to legal liability for negligence in the care of their families and at a minimum places their own assets at risk to their creditors. Small municipalities often rely on one or two major carriers to provide their business community with access to the outside world, and a major factor in the location of new factories, call centers and offices is airport access. This type of consolidation further reduces the geographic distribution of opportunity to locales near major cities that are more expensive, further decreasing the profitability of labor-intensive manufacturing jobs and requiring that they be done in places with higher cost of living, further increasing workers' reliance on credit cards thus perpetuating the cycle of wealth concentration.

Your pie maker is not opposed to large profits, only to sustained economic profits or those obtained by ignoring their externalities. This is not an obscure question of justice, it is a question of which enforcement mechanism we want to endure under the immutable "Law of Zero Long-term Economic Profits." If there is an industry that is inherently more profitable than any other, a market economy guarantees that people will move into it until it is no longer more profitable than its next-most-profitable competitor unless there are sizable barriers to entry or coercive restrictions that protect the current beneficiaries. In that case, the non-benefiting set must either develop cultural norms that allow them to accept a permanent lower status or pursue efforts to erode the barriers to entry, legal or otherwise. The first is antithetical to idea of an American Dream, and the second explains a lot about the TEA Party and Occupy protests, since the major banks can only hire so many people.

So how do we get from here to what National Academies Sustainability Forum participants refer to as "small 's' sustainability"? The President has offered his Clintonian vision of higher taxes on wealthy households to fund infrastructure spending, and thus increase the velocity of money and explicitly redistribute income. It is generally true that US infrastructure needs help, and that a large number of the unemployed are in the construction trade, so this idea has some merit. However, past experience with substantial increases in government funding [[stimulus]] is that they do not pay for physical infrastructure but instead ship money to preserve existing government contracts with service workers, and so it's hard to call this campaign promise credible. Indeed, attempts at social engineering through the tax code, whether inspired by Robin Hood or Ayn Rand, typically incentivize unexpected behaviors and lead to calls for greater regulatory intervention that creates employment for lawyers and accountants, at least until those markets saturate because there isn't enough economic activity to merit further regulation. The GOP vision of protecting "job creators" from tax liability is laughable on its face, as the main product of their last serious effort to do that is a massive oversupply of unsustainable housing, Depression-level private debt and the highest unemployment rate since WWII.

According to most business owners, customers create jobs. Rich people make the best customers if they feel they can get more out of buying something than they can out of Investing it. Put another way, the best way to create jobs is to convince rich people (i.e. those with disposable income) that the best return on an increasing percentage of their money is to pay someone to do something tangible instead of depositing it with an investment firm. In economics-speak, this means increasing the marginal product of labor relative to capital (in the Basel-III sense, not Adam Smith's). For that, redistribution from wealthy to poor is only marginally effective today as much of the income will simply flow from the industrial executive to the financial investor, often enough the same person, after a finance executive takes a cut. Instead, think of ways to reward people for making and maintaining stuff, for providing services in person that improve quality of life and reduce cost of living.

Tuesday, December 27, 2011

PMCIN for Real?

Apparently, there's a field known as "Human Security", which sounds suspiciously like PMCIN, but not as tasty. With that in mind, here's the biweekly qualitative version:

Grain Production: There's an attraction to tangible productivity that a monetary economy can't, and shouldn't be expected, to match.

Fruit Production: Food provides an excellent opportunity for communities to explore the relationship between utility and value.

Dairy Production: What's interesting about this story is the Food Democracy Now calls it "Obama's Tax on Small Farms," while they used to use the Secretary of Agriculture as their boogie man. 2012 is going to be fun.

Housing: Immigration restrictions, rising sea levels and lack of affordable housing in coastal cities got you down? Blueseed is here to help.

Health: Your pie maker may take this example and start labeling his pies with their approximate bike mileage. This story isn't exactly health related, but it makes one feel good.

Transportation: Vindication. Also, a small step in technology, giant leap in private space infrastructure.

Energy: The Durban talks ended with a mild deal, but the best energy plans will probably be local, since it's hard to say sometimes if changing administrations has any impact on environmental or energy policy.

Security: From now on, I may just link to Robert Hadick's column, although this article on manipulating the mechanics of legitimacy is interesting, too. In other news, the Air Cavalry model has a new thoroughbred.

Pie-in-the-sky: Sustained exploration would actually be cheaper than the current half-measures, at least according to this guy, and toys like the Kinect will make it even cheaper.

Friday, December 9, 2011

Weekly news outline

Your pie maker has taken to using this type of post as a convenient frame for his thoughts when they start to wander at a computer.

Grain Production: NOAA's studying a lot of the factors that play into growing foods.

Fruit Production: Organic fruits are a desired luxury. A much better status symbol than shark fin soup, and suggests that we can make labor more lucrative without environmental harm.

Dairy Production: Even in modern, wealthy economies shortages will follow changes in weather and diet patterns.

Housing: Is David Cameron trying to help bring down the marginal product of capital, and thus mean house prices, Europe and world-wide?

Health: Free market economic theory assumes both buyer and seller understand their own interests, end of life health care often fails that check.

Transportation: The FAA's long term funding bill is alive and kicking.

Energy: The amounts are small, but this fuel program suggests there's progress to leverage.

Security: Lacing Europe with tripwires right after talking about this being the Asian century? This is either a very deep and interesting story or bureaucratic inertia at its finest.

Pie-in-the-sky: Projects like this offer an opportunity to motivate the next bunch of kids to reach for the stars. Hopefully, this will turn out to be the most important discovery of the 21st century.

In a previous PCMIN-Pie, I suggested the "Romans" had a steam engine. A better way of putting that would have been to say: The Hellenistic world had examples of a steam engine, intricate clockwork and jars with interchangeable lids, all of the power, mechanical and craftsmanship required for an industrial revolution. Hopefully our descendants won't tell the same story of our space program.

Sunday, December 4, 2011

Energy: I wonder if this is making Oracle's CEO think.

Transportation: Okay, most "green" gains are building and fixed plant efficiency, but transport is the second biggest.

Security: Overstressed is how you describe an army that represents a people who believe they can both project force and enjoy a very high standard of living without engaging in looting. Illiberal is how you describe an economy in which the penalty for outright fraud is limited to less than half the damages you cause, if you have the right connections.

Grain Production: Better uses of grains? Honestly, I should not be looking at farm and ag. specific sources instead of mainstream sources for this.

Fruit Production: The growing season is over, but we can get a start on next year.

Dairy Production: English farmers mproving efficiency with IT. Interesting how we're replacing, or at least supplementing, tribal knowledge with the global hive-mind. Also, this is a cute story, which means it's probably more fluff than news.

Housing: Still too cheap for a portfolio, but not quite affordable.

Health: This is an almost elegant duck of fundamentally difficult questions.

Pie-In-The-Sky: The latest Mars rover weighs more than a pop-up camper.