Friday, August 27, 2010

The Eight Slices of PMCIN

After my last post on how to define the physical pie making capacity, I realized that I was falling into the trap of most ecnometrics and baking-in a fairly narrow focus on information that's available rather than providing a tool to facilitate understanding and discussion. At their best, such numbers (like GDP) are useful for discussing constraints, but at their worst (US unemployment figures) are intentionally misconstrued to try and avoid discussion of structural problems.

Instead of trying to produce a single number, we're going to look at the problem in slices. Each slice will be broken into three parts: (a) the fundamentally important crust, (b) the almost-equally important filling and (c) the nice-to-have topping. If you disagree with any of them, please let me know. Several of these will be more subjective than a trained economist would prefer, but it's better to wear one's bias on the sleeve than to hide it in the formulation of "real" metrics.

The "filling" in most of these relates to the sustainability of the good provided by the "slice", but intentionally focuses on only a narrow aspect of that. My hope is to be able to compare technology and policy developments by looking at how they would impact the other dimensions of sustainability (economic, social, environmental, etc.), with the resulting change in the PMCIN "pie chart." Anyone who wants to contribute Java or spreadsheet calculations for any of these will get a fresh-baked pie the next time I see them.

Slice 1: Grain production.
Crust: (Total grain production)/(Population's caloric needs)
Filling: (Environmentally sustainable grain production)/( Population's caloric needs)
Topping: (Number of grain varieties grown today)/(Number of grain varieties grown before the industrial revolution)

Slice 2: Fruit production
Crust: (Total fruit production)/(Population's nutrition requirements)
Filling: (Environmentally sustainable fruit production)/(Population's nutrition requirements)
Topping: (Number of fruit varieties grown today)/(Number of fruit varieties grown before the industrial revolution)

Slice 3: Dairy production
Crust: (Total dairy production)/(Popultion's nutrition requirements)
Filling: (Environmentally sustainable dairy production)/(Population's nutrition requirements)
Topping: (Locally grown dairy)/(Total dairy needs)

Slice 4: Housing
Crust: (Total safe housing units)/(Needs of population)
Filling: (Median cost of housing)/(1/3 of median income) -->there's probably a better "affordability index" to use here
Topping: (Houses with good cooking facilities)/(Total housing units)

Slice 5: Energy
Crust: (Total power produced) / (Total required for society's standard of living)
Filling: (Environmentally sustainable power produced) / (Total required for society's standard of living)
Topping: (Locally generated power) / (Total required for society's standard of living)

Slice 6: Transportation
Crust: (Ton-miles of freight hauling capacity)/(Needs of the population at acceptable standard of living)
Filling: (Environmentally sustainable ton-miles of hauling capacity)/(Needs of the population at acceptable standard of living)
Topping: (Population with access to self-powered commutes)/(Total population)

Slice 7: Security
Crust: (People who feel their government can provide basic security)/(Total Population)
Filling: (People who respect their government as legitimate)/(Total population)
Topping: (People who feel certain of their standard of living)/(Total population)

Slice 8: Health
Crust: (Total population - disabled by injury/illness)/(Total population) -> would have to normalize this by "acceptable" ratio
Filling: (Number of people with access to non-emergency primary care)/(Total population)
Topping: (Average vacation availability per year)/(2 weeks)