Towards an effective opposition

The Grand Old Party (GOP), which is, in fact, younger than its main opponent, is in for a heck of an internal fight. One the one hand, the often subtle anti-intellectualism of the "base", has now become explicit. On the other, the Wall Street Journal, long the home of the "country-club" Republicans, is publishing op-eds that are clear in their distaste for what is to come.

There is a battle underway for the soul of the Republican party, and the results have significant implications for the US PMCIN. The current banking crisis is starting to relax a bit, but the pretty massive recession promised by the end of the refinance boom is going to come right as we transition from one fairly radical approach to fiscal and regulatory management to another. On top of that, those who seized this power, and fought for a unitary executive, are about to have it crammed down their throats. At least the FBI will have "terrorists" who look like their agents.

Here at Pie and Policy, we have a very clear stake in the "country club", "elite" and "moderate" GOP'ers winning this battle. Divided government, with an effective opposition party in Congress, forces the national debate to a higher level. Note that I say "effective", not one that is easily distracted. On the other hand, united government tends to bring out the worst in the ruling party, regardless of which party holds the reigns.

Towards that end, here's some thoughts into what the GOP can do to get set to take advantage of the mess that the Democrats will be in come 2010:

(1) Tone down the "Party of God" nationalist shtick. After Abu Graib, 8 years of growing income disparity and a major financial crisis only about 22% of the country sees "America the way [Mrs. Palin] see[s] America." Instead, play up the "Party of Personal Responsibility" that brought us the 104th Congress.

(2) Embrace sustainability as a policy goal. There are hundreds of business opportunities available, many with strong export potential, that either limit environmental harm, like solar cells and algae farming , or turn waste into fuel, like digesters that convert manure into methane. All mined fuels, fossil or nuclear, are finite, and societies that depend on them will fail eventually. Provide clear leadership on a path to (1) energy independence (2) complete sustainability in the next half century without picking winners before the technology hits the market. Be willing to call for small scarifies in the name of efficiency, maybe even victory gardens.

(3) Push trade hard. Brazil should not have a more liberal (as in "freedom loving") trade policy than the US. Emphasize how Brazilian sugar cane, tended by Caterpillar and John Deere equipment, can help us get away from Venezuelan (and soon Cuban) oil. Make it clear that Columbia wants our engines, solar panels and biotech products as much as we want their coffee. The list goes on, and the ability to work with center-right Democrats on this will go a long way to restoring the party's credibility.

(4) Show unions some love. This is a simple strategic move, since unions are often the best funded and staffed parts of Democratic campaigns. However, with the right candidate, they can lean towards the GOP. I personally recommend focusing on training, health care and mediation standards.

(5) Push for "transparency" instead of "regulations" in finance. They are, in fact, largely the same thing, but using that language appears more sensible, and keeps the negotiations focused on protecting markets from bad actors, rather than mandating certain behaviors.

(6) Call for a "BRAC" style approach to Medicare and Social Security reform. This has the advantage of possibly working, and lets the bloc that calls for it to punt the really tough questions.

(7) Narratives! Put a human face on all of these points. You're up against the best orator in a generation whose story is n0thing less than extraordinary. His backers in Congress, on the other hand, are less popular than W. Show how your options will help real people (not mythic plumbers), use the PMCIN metrics, and make it clear that you want a stable, sustainable and prosperous America.

(8) Accept the party's split. Americans will only tolerate a center-left government if the alternative is uncomfortably right-wing. There are implacable members of the party who fervently desire to pretend that Bush, Santorum and Palin enjoy widespread support. Where such folks can win local elections, it's no good trying to interrupt that. But do not let them define the party. For years, the Democrats had a list of points potential candidates must support to get national support, and they're set to sweep the nation because they gave it up in favor of pragmatism. Now, GOP, it's your turn.