Peggy Noonan cheers up

I highly doubt that Ms. Noonan actually reads this blog, but it looks like she took my advice: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123508142847026881.html

In general, "big" means energy intensive. Thomas Barnett, in the wake of the Mumbai terror attacks, wrote that globalization is not the "Americanization" of the world, but rather the "Mumbaization", a meeting of cultures and practices that are old, new, rich, poor, and most of all dynamic. Indian engineers have proven that on does not need access to 1142 barrels of oil per year to design software and circuits (roughly $80k/$70, the quoted long term replacement cost of oil), 428 is just fine. Or, if you prefer, 13,635.7kWhrs annual per capita electricity consumption in the US vs. 480.5kWhrs in India (probably closer to 1000-2000 in the cities, but an order of magnitude less). Going local means forswearing the benefits of scale in favor of control over the whole chain.

People are planting gardens, looking into urban agriculture, and reinventing themselves as members of communities rather than isolated and replaceable nuclear family units who shuffle job and McMansion every seven years. My Cabaret cast has several excellent bakers, and we talk somewhat seriously of starting a business once the show closes (the self-reinvention that's happening during the show is quite remarkable, as people who've never been on stage become decent actors, singers, dancers, and stage crew). Even during the boom, graduate school admissions rose steadily as the pay for students became sufficient for them to live well enough that they could love their jobs, despite greater "prosperity" elsewhere.

Slumdog Millionaire has been nominated for Best Picture. The bike rack at my office overflows every day there isn't ice on the roads (despite stereotypes, few grad students would actually welcome death or injury). One of the most successful restaurants in town is also the most active in organizing community events, and is wallpapered with clippings from the local paper about them. The "post-war era" is now over, and in the US we are busily redefining what it means to be successful. The process is painful, giving up the comforts of isolation and rejoining the party always is at first, but we're still the destination of choice for all those innovative folks from Mumbia, Hong Kong, and every crowded, gritty and vibrant city in the world. If you wonder where this is all going, visit the cricket pitch in Kokomo, Indiana on a sunny Saturday during the summer.

The conditions for democracy especially and stability in general include prosperity. At several points in our history we changed the definition of "prosperous." We need to do that again, and I have no doubt we will. The agrarian, isolationist confederacy that split off from England has become the world's oldest constitutional state and its dominant military power. We have lived beyond our means, but we've done that before and survived. We may see a new major political party emerge in the next couple years as the failed philosophy of one falters, and the pragmatic attempts of those currently in power to restore the old order fail. But the United States still wants to be the United States, and at the depth of the tarnishing of "Brand America" most of the world still wanted to work here.

We will learn to live well on something like 3000kWhrs per year, and probably as larger family groups in smaller towns. We have plenty of examples of immigrant families doing exactly that, and as always in our history we continue to bring in people who take to the idea of America with the faith of converts. As some segments bemoan the loss of McMansions that doubled as ATMs, many others are embracing a simpler, more social way of life. Wages will fall until it someone can afford to hire people and open a shop, and that person will be selling a more frugal and social customer base.

The desire to improve never dies, it just changes direction. The US has a long track record of drawing and empowering that part of the human spirit, and I'm willing to bet we will again.