Tuesday, December 7, 2010

Two weeks in pie making.

Your pie maker was going to write a "This Week in Pie Making" last week about the non-fallout from the DoS document dump. The gist of it was that SecDef Gates caught the essence of problem in this quote:

Now, I've heard the impact of these releases on our foreign policy described as a meltdown, as a game-changer, and so on. I think -- I think those descriptions are fairly significantly overwrought. The fact is, governments deal with the United States because it's in their interest, not because they like us, not because they trust us, and not because they believe we can keep secrets. Many governments -- some governments deal with us because they fear us, some because they respect us, most because they need us. We are still essentially, as has been said before, the indispensable nation.

So other nations will continue to deal with us. They will continue to work with us. We will continue to share sensitive information with one another.

Is this embarrassing? Yes. Is it awkward? Yes. Consequences for U.S. foreign policy? I think fairly modest.


The reason for this indispensability is largely because of our very large and powerful economy. The same one that mortgaged its future to pay for benefits for current workers on the assumption that it could refinance that mortgage with future productivity growth. Well, it almost worked. Fortunately, the tax cuts passed right before we got into two land wars in Asia are going to expire soon, and we'll avoid the worst sovereign debt projections from the recent deficit commission. Oh, wait.



Interests in the US ranging from the largest banks to public service unions seem bet on busting-out the US credit rating. The President we elected with a broad mandate to be an Andrew Jackson or an FDR has instead turned out to be a Woodrow Wilson. Mark Lilla does an excellent job explaining the cultural economic forces that have pushed us into this corner.

Not all of the news is bad. The body politic seems to have a lost its sense of history, but GE seems to have found theirs. It is possible for a strong personality to ram through unpopular cuts in a state budget and keep enough popularity to continue to govern. GOP Senators publicly endorsed raising the gasoline tax (among other deficit-reducing items), and car-crazy California voted convincingly to stick with their carbon reduction plans. Heck, maybe this latest capitulation was a subtle export-boosting, emissions-reducing plan devised by expert economists.

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